Cisco Pulls the WiMAX Trigger
On October 2, I wrote here that Cisco was considering the acquisition of a WiMAX vendor and what that might mean to our profession and to WiMAX adoption. On October 23, it happened. Cisco announced its intent to acquire Navini Networks.
I need not expand much more on why I think this is a good thing. You can read my previous posts on this topic, beginning with my October 2 posting.
I must confess, I am not familiar with Navini. I therefore cannot speak to their technical suitability, but Cisco’s due diligence process is among the best in the technology business. I suspect the technology is very good, even if Navini’s installed base may be small. We often hear about Alvarion, and traditional telecommunications vendors Nortel and Alcatel-Lucent have entered the market too.
With Navini, Cisco has potential to dominate the nascent WiMAX market. The major communications carriers in the U.S. (e.g., AT&T, Verizon, Qwest) have ignored WiMAX in favor of other 3G and 4G wireless services. Sprint is the only maverick, with its Xohm service that is built on WiMAX. I believe all will eventually be compelled to succumb to market pressure and embrace WiMAX in addition to 3G (and other 4G) mobile services such as WCDMA and 1xRTT.
The biggest near-term market for WiMAX is not within the U.S., however. Developing economies are the real opportunity here. India and China are experiencing meteoric growth in personal and business technology. This growth requires communications infrastructure that must keep pace. Traditional wired infrastructure will not be the answer here. India already has 209 million wireless subscribers and China is now at 520 million. Bear in mind that the entire US population just crossed the 300 million mark. We’re talking about some very big numbers in China and India!
I did a bit of research on the wireless subscriber growth projections published by several sources including IDC, Gartner, ITU, and national government agencies. The graphic on the right shows the results and how growth is exploding in China and especially in India. Click on the image for the full size version.
It is true that even India and China already are a bit hampered by an installed base of 3G and other wireless technologies, but WiMAX is a very strong contender for 4G wireless services. With growth projections like those I found, this speaks very well for the future of WiMAX.
Even in the U.S., one of the markets where growth is slowing due to saturation, there is also very good potential. Emerging 4G services, like Xohm, will become more popular, but the immediate market for WiMAX is for rural broadband delivery. These far-flung communities seldom enjoy the benefits of DSL or cable modem service for many reasons, most notably distance. They are too sparsely populated for the normal carriers (e.g., Verizon, Comcast) to invest in the infrastructure needed for broadband. WiMAX promises to help by offering a relatively cheap infrastructure that can effectively serve these sparse populations.
With Cisco now in the game, the WiMAX market is about to heat up even more. This will be fun to observe!